Volume 15, Issue 9 · IJARST · ISSN 2319-1783 / 2320-1126

Poly crisis and India's Oil Market Resilience: Evidence from the Russia Ukraine and Iran Israel US Wars

Poly crisis and India's Oil Market Resilience: Evidence from the Russia Ukraine and Iran Israel US Wars is an open-access, peer-reviewed research paper by Vivaan Anand, published in Volume 15, Issue 9 of the International Journal of Advanced Research in Science and Technology (IJARST), a UGC-approved journal (Print ISSN 2319-1783, Online ISSN 2320-1126).

Author

Vivaan Anand

Abstract

The world has moved from single, isolated shocks to a poly-crisis, where wars, supply-chain breaks and price shocks arrive together and feed each other. This paper studies two such shocks for India: the Russia-Ukraine war that began on 24 February 2022, and the US-Israel-Iran war that began on 28 February 2026. Using publicly available government and market data, the paper applies a descriptive analysis, an event study, independent-samples t-tests, an F-test for variance, and a correlation analysis to measure how Brent crude oil prices and the USD/INR exchange rate reacted around each war. The 2026 war produced a far larger and more statistically significant price shock than the 2022 war, while the rupee-oil correlation on a day-to-day basis is weaker than commonly assumed, pointing to the cushioning role of RBI intervention and a growing share of discounted Russian crude in India's import basket. The paper closes with simple, practical resilience lessons for Indian policymakers and businesses.

Keywords: Market Resilience, War, Poly-crisis, Oil Market, Resilience

DOI: https://doi.org/10.62226/ijarst20262774

References

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DOI

10.62226/ijarst20262774

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How do you cite this paper?

Vivaan Anand — “Poly crisis and India's Oil Market Resilience: Evidence from the Russia Ukraine and Iran Israel US Wars.” International Journal of Advanced Research in Science and Technology (IJARST), Volume 15, Issue 9. DOI: 10.62226/ijarst20262774.

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